- This page desperately needs info.
Lynching incorrectly in a Mislynch and Lose situation might not result in an immediate loss, because doctor saves, bodyguard protections, and vigilante shooting right, etc. would save the town from losing. However, when we use the term, it is very possible that it will be a loss if town lynches a town role.
It is Mislynch and Lose, when the following condition is true
P = 2n+x+1
- n = Sum of: Mafia (the Yakuza counts as 1.5), a Killer, a Fool, a Lyncher with target alive, a Warlock with one vote used or Survivor that is alive.
- x = The number of deaths that can potentially occur next night (not including death caused by Yak using Yak ability).
- P = Number of Players Alive
1. Common situation (where #mafia + 2 = #villagers)
During a day 2 Mafias, 4 Villagers are left, 6 players total. If they lynch 1 villager on this day, mafia will kill one of the villagers the following night, making it 2 villagers vs 2 mafias and Town will lose. So it is Mislynch and Lose.
2. Killer/Maf Situation ( 1 Mafia, 1 Killer, 5 Villagers)
During the day 1 Mafia, 1 Killer, 5 Villagers are left, 7 players total. If they lynch 1 villager on this day, Mafia will kill one of the villagers the following night, as will the Killer. Making it 2 Villagers vs 1 Mafia and 1 Killer. They could then control the day votes, so it is Mislynch and Lose.
- Mislynch and Lose is often associated with days that have even numbers of players left, however this may not always be the case. This is because most games have only one killing party (x=1).
3. When to lynch during Mislynch and Lose situations.
During a day, 1 cleared Watcher, 2 Villagers, 1 mafia left. Town should lynch here because the Watcher offers an unbiased random opinion. If Watcher chooses, there is a 1/3 chance that he correctly identifies the mafia. However, if town decides to NL and watcher dies the next day, the town only has a 1/4 chance of winning. Thus, by no-lynching in a Mislynch and Lose situation, the town gives up 1/12 chance of winning.
When the guilty mafia can disguise or be sacrificed. e.g. In the setup Disguiser Ball, there are 3 Disguisers, 1 Cop, 1 Bodyguard, 1 Miller, 2 Villagers. If the Cop has a guilty, by no-lynching, town will give mafia the option to disguise. (a)
|LYLO, MYLO, WIFOM, Bus, Bandwagon|